Reading the numbers
Start with the evidence label beside the percentage. An official rate describes a particular year and pool; a scenario estimate fills a data gap; a capacity ratio does not measure lottery acceptance. New York’s organiser reported about 1% for 2026. Tokyo does not publish the current general-draw denominator, so its 10% preset is a scenario, not an official result.
What the calculation assumes
For a fixed annual probability p, the chance of at least one selection in n independent years is 1 − (1 − p)^n. The chance of none is (1 − p)^n. At 10%, five attempts give 41% at least once and 59% none. The next attempt still has 10% in that model.
The average attempts until success is 1/p. It does not mean you are due by that year. If rules or demand change, the constant-rate scenario no longer describes those years.
Plan for zero entries and multiple entries
Choose only races you could afford and recover between. The portfolio reports no selection, exactly one, and two or more under independent draws. For two races at 10% and 20%, those probabilities are 72%, 26% and 2%. Multiple wins can mean multiple non-refundable charges; inspect each race’s payment and withdrawal terms before applying.
Match dates to the race year
Tokyo’s 2027 general ballot ran from 14 to 28 August 2026, with results on 18 September 2026. NYC’s 2026 drawing application ran from 4 to 25 February 2026. These are completed windows, not next-season opening dates. Use the registration calendar and linked race pages to distinguish a confirmed date from a typical month.
Tokyo: eligibility can add a draw, not a fixed bonus
The 2027 guideline sets 3,000 member-draw places, 4,000 places for eligible ONE TOKYO members unsuccessful in the 2024–2026 races, and 1,000 Tokyo-resident places. The GLOBAL consecutive-unsuccessful route starts with 2028. These are separate eligibility rules, not an extra 0.5 percentage points per rejection. Pool applicant counts are not published.
Charity and RUN as ONE routes also have selection conditions. Confirm acceptance through the organiser or charity before treating either as a secured place.